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PGNiG Drops Most on Record on Gas Supply Risk Bets: Warsaw Mover

Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo SA fell the most on record on concern the Polish natural gas company’s main pipeline route via Ukraine may be disrupted and after projecting lower-than expected earnings.

State-controlled PGNiG fell as much as 11 percent to 4.56 zloty before trading at 4.64 zloty at 2:30 p.m. in Warsaw as the country’s benchmark WIG20 Index declined 4 percent. OAO Gazprom, Russia’s gas export monopoly, fell as much as 17 percent in Moscow.

Ukraine yesterday mobilized its army after lawmakers in Moscow gave permission for troop deployments and Russia seized control of the Black Sea region of Crimea. PGNiG said late on Feb. 28 its 2014 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization will be about 5.9 billion zloty ($1.9 billion), lower than the 7.07 billion-zloty forecast of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

“If Gazprom were to turn down the gas tap, it could have a negative impact on PGNiG,” Tomasz Kasowicz, an analyst at Bank Zachodni WBK SA, said by phone today. “However, it’s difficult to say how probable that scenario is. What’s making PGNiG’s shares fall more than others is the forecast it announced last week.”

Redirect Imports

PGNiG controls 98 percent of the Polish gas market and imports about two-thirds of the fuel from Russia via Ukraine and Belarus. Dorota Gajewska, the company’s spokeswoman, said gas supplies via Ukraine were uninterrupted and it’s monitoring the situation.

Gaz-System SA, the state owner of the pipeline network, sees no signs of any possible cut or halts of deliveries from Ukraine, spokeswoman Malgorzata Polkowska said today. Poland can redirect imports via Belarus if needed, while gas storage facilities are full and demand is moderate because of mild weather, she said.

Grupa Azoty and PKN Orlen SA, Poland’s biggest gas consumers, declined 4.3 percent and 5.1 percent respectively.

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