A classified intelligence report predicts progress the U.S. and allies have made in Afghanistan during the last three years will deteriorate significantly by 2017 as American troop levels are drawn down, the Washington Post reported.
The National Intelligence Estimate, comprising information gathered by the nation’s 16 intelligence agencies, predicts a resurgence of influence by the Taliban as the U.S. withdraws, the Post said, citing unnamed officials who have read or been briefed on the report.
National Intelligence Estimates are issued periodically, usually preceding major policy decisions, the Post said.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has opened talks with the Afghan government on troop support after 2014, while emphasizing that any accord remains contingent on the signing of a U.S.-Afghan security pact.
A U.S.-Afghan accord is also a prerequisite for the release of billions of dollars of aid pledged by the U.S. and its allies. The national intelligence report predicts Afghanistan would deteriorate into chaos without such military and financial support, according to the Post’s account.
The Pentagon has pressed Afghan President Hamid Karzai to sign the agreement that would let U.S. forces train and assist Afghanistan’s army after 2014, when most U.S. troops will come home from a war now in its 13th year. Karzai so far has refused to sign.