Teekay Sees Oil-Tanker Rates Rising as Demand Growth Beats Fleet

Teekay Corp., the largest U.S.- traded owner of crude tankers, said charter rates for mid-size vessels will probably rise next year as demand expands and ship supply either stays the same or contracts.

There will be almost no growth for the next two years in the supply of Suezmaxes and Aframaxes hauling about 1 million barrels and 650,000 barrels of oil respectively, Christian Waldegrave, research manager for the Hamilton, Bermuda-based company, said in a presentation on Teekay’s website yesterday. The fleet of the smaller vessels may even decline while demand will increase by 3 to 4 percent, he said.

Overseas Shipholding Group and General Maritime Corp. were among U.S.-based owners that sought bankruptcy protection in the past two years as the global tanker fleet expanded faster than demand. Daily earnings for Suezmaxes will climb 9 percent next year to $16,200 while those for Aframaxes will advance 7 percent to $15,000, according to the averages of 43 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

“The crude tanker order book is really rolling off now,” Waldegrave said. “You don’t need much demand growth to get better utilization rates and therefore better tanker rates.”

Teekay owns crude and refined-product tankers, liquefied gas carriers, ships that store and process oil found offshore, and shuttle tankers. Its shares rose 37 percent to $43.87 in New York this year.

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