India’s rupee fell the most in two months as better-than-estimated U.S. data revived concern the Federal Reserve will pare stimulus earlier than anticipated. Bonds dropped.
The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index increased to 55.4 in October, compared with 54.4 in the previous month and in contrast to a Bloomberg survey prediction of a drop to 54. Investors are also gauging when the Reserve Bank of India will stop supplying dollars directly to oil refiners, according to DBS Bank Ltd.
“While these maneuvers have been priced in, some buoyancy in the dollar versus rupee should be expected when these are eventually unwound,” analysts at DBS, including David Carbon in Singapore, wrote in a research report today. The ISM data has “kept taper hopes alive,” they wrote, adding that markets aren’t factoring in any U.S. interest-rate increases.
The rupee fell 1.2 percent to 62.40 per dollar in Mumbai, biggest drop since Sept. 3, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. The currency touched 62.41 earlier, the weakest level since Oct. 1. One-month implied volatility, a gauge of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, rose 48 basis points, or 0.48 percentage point, to 11.36 percent.
The yield on the 7.16 percent government notes due May 2023 rose eight basis points to 8.82 percent, according to prices from the central bank’s trading system. The rate is the highest since Sept. 24.
Three-month onshore rupee forwards fell 1.5 percent to 63.90 per dollar, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Offshore non-deliverable contracts fell 0.3 percent to 64.18. Forwards are agreements to buy or sell assets at a set price and date. Non-deliverable contracts are settled in dollars.