The chances are waning that more cold air will seep into the eastern U.S. through mid-November, boosting energy demand, said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC.
Temperatures in the U.S. East and Canada will probably remain seasonal from Nov. 3 to Nov. 12, with any cold air confined to the western parts of both countries, said Rogers, who’s based in Bethesda, Maryland.
“Gone is the stronger cooling of late October, but it’s not yet being replaced by the stronger warm anomaly pattern of early October,” Rogers said in his forecast.
Below-normal temperatures, especially in Eastern and Midwestern cities, tend to increase energy consumption as more utility customers heat homes and businesses. November marks the start of the U.S. heating season, when natural gas demand peaks.
Power generation accounts for 32 percent of U.S. gas use, according to the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm. About 49 percent of all homes use the fuel for heating.
Low temperatures in Chicago have been in the 20s and 30s Fahrenheit since Oct. 20, according to the National Weather Service. In New York, readings have dipped to the low- to mid-40s (about 4 to 7 Celsius) for the past week.
Computer forecast models show that short periods of cold are possible through mid-November, with the general outlook for “a mostly benign temperature pattern,” Rogers said.
The normal average temperature in New York for Nov. 6 is about 52 degrees, said MDA Weather Systems in Gaithersburg, Maryland. In Boston, it’s 48; in St. Louis, 52; Dallas, 60; Chicago, 45; in Burbank, California, 63; and in Calgary, it’s 32.