Russian government bonds rose for a third day after the inflation rate in September slowed toward the central bank’s target. The ruble headed for a fourth weekly gain in five against the dollar.
The yield on ruble-denominated benchmark debt due February 2027 slipped one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 7.63 percent. Russia’s currency was set for a 0.5 percent advance this week even as it depreciated 0.2 percent against the dollar to 32.1915 by 6 p.m. in Moscow today. It was steady against Bank Rossii’s target basket of dollars and euros at 37.3794.
Russia’s annual inflation decelerated to 6.1 percent in September from 6.5 percent in August, the Federal Statistics Service said today. That compares with the 6.2 percent median estimate of 14 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The central bank, which will hold its monetary policy meeting on Oct. 14, has a target of 5 percent to 6 percent for price increases in 2013.
“The bonds continued to gain on the decelerating inflation,” Dmitry Dorofeev, a fixed-income strategist at BCS Financial Group in Moscow, said by e-mail. “It looks like there is no way the central bank will cut rates in October, but the market is preparing for monetary easing, and bonds gain, closer to the end of the year.”
Crude, Russia’s chief export earner, climbed 0.3 percent to $109.34 per barrel in London. An index of 20 emerging-market currencies compiled by Bloomberg rose for a fifth day, increasing 0.1 percent to 94.44.
Russia’s current-account surplus shrank to $1.1 billion in the third quarter, compared with $5.83 billion a year ago and below the median forecast of $8 billion in a Bloomberg survey of 7 economists. The net capital outflow from Russia was $12.9 billion over the three months through September, compared with $7 billion in the previous quarter, the central bank reported late yesterday in Moscow.
A worsening balance of payments has already been priced-in by the currency market, analysts at ZAO Raiffeisenbank led by Anastasia Baykova said in an e-mailed note. “In the absence of any considerable shocks on external markets we don’t think the pressure on the ruble will increase before the end of the year.”