Temperatures in the U.K. and western Europe will be near to, or below, normal in the three months from September, according to Weather Services International.
The rest of the continent, particularly eastern Europe and western Russia, will be warmer than normal, the forecaster, a unit of Andover, Massachusetts-based The Weather Company, said in an e-mailed report. In September, it will be cooler than normal in southern Sweden and Norway and warmer than normal elsewhere in the Nordic region, according to the statement. It will be warmer than normal in southern Europe and cooler than normal in the north and the U.K.
“Our models suggest that October will be the warmest of the autumn months, relative to normal,” WSI said in the statement. “A very early look at indicators for the upcoming winter suggest that atmospheric blocking may be favored again this winter, which would favor below-normal temperatures across significant parts of Europe.”
Weather drives demand for power and natural gas, particularly during the European winter when cold weather increases the need for heating. Colder-than-predicted temperatures pushed the cost of day-ahead U.K. gas to 123.5 pence a therm in March, the most since 2006, according to Marex Spectron data compiled by Bloomberg.
WSI said June 26 that the U.K. and most of mainland Europe would stay cooler than average in July. The U.K. had the third-warmest mean temperature since 1910 that month, Met Office data show.
In October, it will be warmer than normal across Europe, except in the extreme north of the U.K., WSI said. In November, it will be cooler than normal in most of the Nordic region and the U.K. and warmer than normal in northern and southern Europe, it said.