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Cotton Group Raises World Inventory Forecast by 7% on India Crop

Global cotton stockpiles next year will be 7 percent bigger than estimated in July and the largest ever as India’s crop improves and demand grows more slowly that expected, the International Cotton Advisory Committee said.

Inventories on July 31, 2014, will reach 19.81 million metric tons, up from 18.51 million forecast last month and 18.22 million held a year earlier, the Washington-based committee said today in an e-mailed report. The surplus will have doubled in four seasons as output exceeds demand.

While production in the 2013-2014 season will drop 3.1 percent from a year earlier to 25.59 million tons, that’s up from 24.95 million predicted in July as ample monsoon rains in India boost the nation’s harvest, according to the committee. Consumption will be 24 million tons, compared with the 24.33 million tons estimated last month, it said.

On July 11, the U.S. Department of Agriculture boosted its global crop estimate, citing output gains in India, the largest grower after China, and forecast stockpiles of 20.5 million tons.

Cotton futures in New York are down 9 percent since reaching an 11-month high of 93.93 cents a pound in March as concerns eased that world output will decline for a second year. The contract for December delivery closed at 85.43 cents today.

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