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Turkish GDP Estimates Cut, Inflation Raised in Bloomberg Survey

Forecasters have pared their 2013 growth outlook for Turkey to 3.8 percent while raising their inflation expectations to 7 percent, according to the latest results of a Bloomberg News survey.

The median growth estimate from a July 19-24 poll of 32 economists is down from a 4 percent forecast in last month’s survey. The inflation forecast is up from 6.8 percent in the earlier survey. The central bank’s year-end goal is 5 percent. In June, inflation accelerated to 8.3 percent, its fastest pace since September 2012.

Economists see the current-account deficit equaling 6.9 percent of GDP, up from 6.8 percent last month. The median forecast for the 2014 deficit remained unchanged at 7 percent of GDP. The deficit was $31.9 billion for the first five months of this year, and the government’s full-year forecast is $55.3 billion. Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek called the current-account deficit “Turkey’s biggest vulnerability” in an interview on news channel NTV yesterday.

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