Gold has the worst 12-month outlook among commodities and will trade below $1,400 an ounce in a year, according to an investor poll by Credit Suisse Group AG.
Sixty percent of respondents named bullion as having the worst outlook, 18 percent picked copper and 16 percent selected corn, the bank said in an e-mailed report today. Fifty-one percent predicted gold will fall under $1,400 in 12 months, it said. The bank polled 185 investors including hedge funds, pension funds and family offices on May 15 in London.
“Bearishness for gold was a very clear consensus,” said Kamal Naqvi, the head of commodities sales for Europe, Middle East and Africa at Credit Suisse. “It’s not about just not buying gold, it’s about shorting it,” or wagering on a drop.
Gold slumped into a bear market last month as investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value. Bullion is down 17 percent this year, compared with the 2.9 percent drop for the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of raw materials.
Fifty-three percent of investors expect commodity prices to stay near current levels, Credit Suisse said. Most were underweight raw materials or had zero exposure, while they expected to be overweight or neutral in 12 months, the bank said. Investors named relative value trades, fundamentally based directional trades and volatility as the best ways to extract value from commodities.