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Global Oilseed Output Forecast Raised on Larger Soybean Supply

Global production of oilseeds this season may be larger than forecast a month ago because of bigger-than-expected supplies of soybeans and rapeseed, Oil World said.

Output of seven major oilseeds in the 2012-13 season may be 456.1 million metric tons, 1.3 million tons more than forecast a month ago and 5.8 percent larger than last season, the Hamburg-based researcher said today. Global production of soybeans in the 2012-13 marketing year, which began Sept. 1 in the U.S., may be 266 million tons, while world rapeseed output will climb to 62.5 million tons.

Soybean production in five major South American countries may be 143.6 million tons, unchanged from a forecast two weeks ago, including 81.3 million tons from Brazil and 48.5 million tons from Argentina, Oil World said. Soybean exports from South America in April were the highest ever for the month at 9.3 million tons, and shipments may reach another record in May of at least 10 million tons.

“South American soybean exports are now accelerating” after logistical backlogs and harvest delays postponed shipments from Brazil in the first quarter, Oil World said. “This will finally result in the much desired improvement of soybean arrivals in the importing countries, although the shipping period of three-to-four weeks to several Asian and European destinations needs to be considered.”

Harvest Accelerates

Dry weather has allowed the harvest to accelerate in Brazil, with 78 percent of crops collected in Rio Grande do Sul state, near the normal pace, Oil World said. Argentina’s harvest was 18 percent complete as of April 25. About 430,000 hectares (1.1 million acres) may be abandoned. Farmers in Argentina probably have sold about a third of their soybeans, less than last year and the average rate, as producers are holding crops as a hedge against rising inflation, according to the report.

The U.S. soybean crop in the 2012-13 season may be 82.4 million tons (3.027 billion bushels), up 350,000 tons from the previous forecast and larger than the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s estimate at 82.06 million tons, Oil World said. The researcher pegs U.S. ending stocks at 2.72 million tons, below the USDA’s forecast at 3.39 million tons, because of higher exports.

China’s soybean imports may not increase in 2012-13, snapping a nine-year streak of rising purchases, Oil World said. The country’s soybean stockpiles in early May will be less than five weeks of consumption and 6 million tons smaller than a year earlier. Imports in April were about 3.6 million tons, down from 4.9 million tons last year, Oil World said.

Palm Oil

Global exports of eight major vegetable oils in the first half of the 2012-13 marketing year rose to 35.1 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from a year earlier, led by an increase in palm oil shipments. World palm oil consumption was a record 27.4 million tons from October through March, 300,000 tons more than estimated a month ago, Oil World said. Global imports of palm oil in the first quarter climbed 12 percent from a year earlier to 10.9 million tons.

“Large supplies of palm oil by-and-large offset the feared repercussions of year-on-year reductions mainly in world output of soya oil, sunflower oil and groundnut oil so far this season,” Oil World said.

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