Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s spokesman said there are no new developments today in the process of appointing a replacement for Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney.
“There is plenty of speculation out there but our office has nothing new to report,” Dan Miles, a spokesman for Flaherty, said in a telephone interview from Ottawa. Flaherty didn’t address the question in Parliament today and he declined to comment to Bloomberg News as he was leaving the legislature.
Flaherty said April 12 he may not meet his goal of naming a replacement this month for Carney, 48, who leaves June 1 before taking over the Bank of England. Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem said April 23 he would accept the job and is the most likely choice among economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Export Development Canada Chief Executive Officer Stephen Poloz and Stanford University finance professor Darrell Duffie have been named as possibilities by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the Globe and Mail newspaper.
“A clone of Mark Carney somewhere, when you read the comments from Flaherty, it seems that’s what he wants,” said Charles St-Arnaud, Canadian economist and foreign exchange strategist at Nomura Securities International in New York who has worked as an economist at both the country’s finance department and central bank. “Tiff would represent continuity to what they have done at the bank.”
Under the Bank of Canada Act, the governor must be a Canadian citizen.
Macklem, 51, started at the central bank in 1984 and joined its rate-setting panel in 2004 before being promoted to senior deputy in July 2010. The bank’s key interest rate has been 1 percent since September 2010 in the longest pause since the 1950s. At a January lecture Macklem said the bank’s monetary policy has been “effective” and keeping it unchanged has been “the right thing to do.”
Poloz, 57, is chief executive officer of Export Development Canada, a government trade financing agency. He joined EDC in 1999 as chief economist after three years with Bank Credit Analyst Research in Montreal and 14 years at the Bank of Canada in roles that included head of the research department.
Duffie, 58, is a finance professor at California’s Stanford University, and most of his research is related to securities markets and the prices of assets such as derivatives. Duffie earned a doctorate in engineering economic systems from Stanford in 1984, a master’s degree in economic statistics from Australia’s University of New England and a bachelor degree in civil engineering from the University of New Brunswick in 1975.
The last two governor appointments have bypassed the senior deputy, with David Dodge moving from the finance department to take the helm in 2001, and again in 2008 with Carney, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banker.
The announcement of an external candidate would probably be negative for the Canadian dollar.
“An external candidate might be seen as a break with current thinking and perhaps a different view on fundamental prospects,” Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said by e-mail. “It may increase speculation that the policy outlook might turn more neutral.”
The Canadian dollar gained 0.3 percent to 1.0169 per U.S. dollar at 2:51 p.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar buys 98.34 U.S. cents.