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Cocoa Exceeding Moving Average Signals Rally: Technical Analysis

Cocoa futures, already headed for their biggest monthly gain since August, probably will advance further to the highest since early December, according to a technical analysis by John Caruso at RJO Futures.

Prices on ICE Futures U.S. in New York are sending bullish signals after surging above the 50-day moving average of $2,149 a metric ton on April 8 and then the 100-day average of $2,246 three days later, Caruso said. Today, after advancing to $2,348, the highest for a most-active contract since Dec. 21, cocoa is above the 200-day moving average of $2,331.

“We need to close above the $2,331 level,” Caruso, a senior broker with Chicago-based RJO, said in a telephone interview. “If we do that, this market could press on toward the $2,450 and $2,550 area before September. If the price fails to close above $2,331, we will probably see a consolidation phase between $2,260 and $2,330 before another push to the upside.”

A rally to $2,550 would be the highest since Dec. 3 and would mark a 8.9 percent gain for prices that traded at $2,342 as of 9:51 a.m. in New York, up 7.2 percent for the month.

Rabobank International on April 17 forecast a rally to $2,475 in the third quarter. The bank cited concern that production may be lower in Indonesia, the world’s third-largest grower, while profitable processing means the demand outlook is “good” for the second half of the year.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

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