KGHM Polska Miedz SA, Poland’s sole copper and silver producer, soared the most in almost five months as UniCredit SpA recommended buying the stock on expectations the company will pay half its profit as a dividend.
The shares advanced 3.5 percent, the biggest gain since Nov. 19, to close at 162.7 zloty in Warsaw. The stock has declined 14 percent this year, compared with a 8.2 percent fall in Warsaw’s WIG20 Index. UniCredit upgraded KGHM from hold and cut its price estimate 10 percent to 185 zloty.
“We assume KGHM will pay a dividend of 12.2 zloty per share,” Marcin Gatarz, an analyst at UniCredit in Warsaw, said in a research note today. This “translates into a dividend yield of 7.8 percent and should be supportive of the share price.”
KGHM, in which Poland holds a 32 percent stake, should pay out at least 30 percent of its 4.87 billion-zloty ($1.55 billion) profit, Parkiet reported on Feb. 18, citing Treasury Minister Mikolaj Budzanowski. The budget gap reached about 25 billion zloty in the first quarter, or 70 percent of the government’s full-year plan after the economic slowdown cut tax revenue, Deputy Finance Minister Hanna Majszczyk said April 4.
UniCredit estimates the government budget “appears to be short of at least 10 billion zloty in revenue” this year, which “should result in a strong appetite for dividends” from state-controlled companies.
Deutsche Bank AG, which maintained its buy recommendation in a note yesterday, expects KGHM to return 60 percent of last year’s profit to shareholders, or 14.8 zloty a share.