World corn production is forecast to climb 9 percent in the 2013-14 crop year, with the U.S. harvest predicted to rise as much as 30 percent this year, the International Grains Council forecast.
Global corn stocks may jump 19 percent from a 16-year low expected at the end of the 2012-13 crop year, as output rises faster than consumption, the London-based council wrote in an e-mailed report today.
Corn prices in Chicago have dropped 14 percent from a record in August on expectations of increased U.S. production, while wheat has slumped 23 percent from a July peak.
For corn, “assuming normal weather, production is projected to rebound sharply in 2013-14,” the IGC wrote. “Led by sharp increase in the U.S., exporter stocks are expected to recover to an eight-year high.”
The IGC repeated an outlook for world wheat production to rise 4 percent. A recovery in global wheat use will leave “little room” to rebuild stocks, with inventories forecast to climb by 5 million metric tons in 2013-14, according to the IGC.
World corn production is expected to be 850.4 million tons in 2012-13, little changed from the forecast a month ago, while falling from 876.9 million tons a year earlier. Stocks are predicted to be 114 million tons at the end of the season, unchanged from last month’s forecast.
The outlook for Argentina’s corn crop was cut by 1 million tons to 26 million tons, while production estimates were raised for Turkey, Thailand and India. The forecast for U.S. shipments was cut to 22 million tons, 1.5 tons less than predicted in February, while the outlook for Brazil’s shipments was lifted by 1 million tons to 27 million tons.
World production of wheat may be 655.7 million tons, also little changed from the council’s previous forecast. The outlook for Argentina’s crop of the grain was reduced to 10 million tons from 10.5 million tons.
World wheat carryover stocks are seen at 177 million tons at the end of 2012-13, compared with a February outlook for inventories of 176 million tons.
Soybean production in 2012-13 may be 266 million tons, 3 million tons less than forecast in February, the IGC said. The global rice harvest may amount to 468 million tons, compared with last month’s prediction of 466 million tons.