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Mexican Bond Yields Decline to Record Low; Peso Little Changed

Mexico’s bond yields tumbled to a record low amid mounting speculation that the central bank will reduce the country’s target interest rate this week.

Yields on benchmark peso bonds due in 2024 fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 5.04 percent at 4 p.m. in Mexico City, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s the lowest closing level since the securities were first issued in 2005. The price rose 0.12 centavo to 144.01 centavos per peso. The peso gained 0.3 percent to 12.7027 per dollar.

“We’re again at record lows,” Jose Carreno, a bond trader at Banco Base SA, said in a phone interview from San Pedro Garza Garcia, Mexico. Traders speculating about a reduction “are trying to get a get ahead a bit of the movement that could happen with the cut. They’re trying to anticipate it.”

Interbank futures contracts show that traders are betting central bank board members led by Governor Agustin Carstens will cut the 4.5 percent benchmark rate at the conclusion of their policy meeting on March 8. Twenty-one of 22 Mexico economists in a survey released today by Citigroup Inc.’s Banamex unit said they see a rate cut coming this year, with the median call being for a 50 basis point reduction at the April meeting.

Credit Suisse Group AG said yesterday that it now expects policy makers to cut the overnight rate to 4 percent this week, changing its call from a 75 basis point reduction at its June meeting.

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