Global rapeseed production may be larger than estimated a month ago on improving prospects for India and Australia, Oil World said. Palm oil output may also be bigger than previously projected.
The world’s rapeseed harvest will be 61.3 million tons in the 2012-13 season, 500,000 tons more than forecast a month ago and 900,000 tons higher than a year earlier, when the global harvest fell to a three-year low, the Hamburg-based researcher said today in an e-mailed report. Estimates for India and Australia were revised to 7 million tons and 3.2 million tons, respectively. In a Jan. 18 report, Oil World pegged those countries’ crops at 6.7 million tons and 3.15 million tons.
“Some observers consider it possible that actual production will turn out even higher in both countries,” Oil World said. Output as large as 3.5 million tons in Australia, as projected by some private analysts, “would result in higher Australian export supplies and somewhat moderate the tightness of world supplies of rapeseed and canola in the next four months.”
Global stockpiles of rapeseed and canola, a low-acid variety of the crop, may drop to 4.95 million tons by the end of the marketing year, the smallest in at least four seasons. Crushing from July to December rose to a record 30.8 million tons. World exports may tumble 21 percent from a year earlier to 5.3 million tons. The European Union may become the world’s largest importer from January to June, Oil World said.
Palm oil production in the 2012-13 marketing year that began Oct. 1 may be 55.3 million tons, 300,000 tons higher than previously forecast and 3.4 million tons more than a year earlier, Oil World said. Output in Indonesia, the top producer, may be a record 27.4 million tons, while production may be 19.7 million tons in Malaysia.
Palm oil stockpiles that reached a record 10.5 million tons at the beginning of January may drop to about 9 million tons by the end of March as global consumption exceeds production by as much as 1.5 million tons from January to March, Oil World said.