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U.K. Next-Day Natural Gas Falls on Warmer Temperature Forecasts

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. natural gas for next-day delivery fell by the most in a week as forecasters predicted higher-than-average temperatures, cutting demand for the fuel.

Within-day gas also declined, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. The average temperature in the U.K. tomorrow will be 5.6 degrees Celsius (42 Fahrenheit), up from 0.6 degrees today and above the seasonal normal of 5 degrees, according to an ECMWF model provided to Bloomberg by MetraWeather.

Gas for tomorrow slid as much as 2.7 percent to 67.5 pence a therm, the biggest intraday decline since Feb. 5, before trading at 68.2 pence at 4:43 p.m. London time. Month-ahead gas climbed 1 percent to 66.5 pence a therm. That’s equivalent to $10.33 per million British thermal units and compares with $3.29 per million Btu of front-month U.S. gas.

Demand in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. Feb. 15 is predicted to be 334 million cubic meters, after reaching 370 million yesterday, the most since Jan. 24, National Grid Plc data show. The delivery network will contain 354 million cubic meters of gas at 6 a.m. tomorrow, up from 352 million 24 hours earlier, grid data show.

Flows from Norway, the U.K.’s biggest source of imported gas, were at a rate of 111 million cubic meters a day compared with a 10-day average of 106 million, Gassco AS data show. Imports through BBL Co.’s pipeline from the Netherlands were at 39 million cubic meters a day, the most since Jan. 24.

Power Production

Gas accounted for 36 percent of U.K. power production at 10:15 a.m., National Grid data show. Coal generated 40 percent, nuclear 15 percent and wind 7.4 percent.

RWE AG said three 250-megawatt units at its biomass power plant in Tilbury were halted because of a fuel supply issue. They will resume production tomorrow, RWE said on its website.

U.K. wind production will peak at 3,392 megawatts tomorrow after reaching 3,952 megawatts today, Bloomberg calculations show. It reached a record 5,082 megawatts Feb. 3, grid data show.

Electricity for tomorrow fell 4.4 percent to 49.25 pounds a megawatt-hour, broker data show.

To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Brown in London at mbrown42@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lars Paulsson at lpaulsson@bloomberg.net

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