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Mexico’s Bond Yields Rise as Safety Trade Ebbs; Peso Declines

Mexico’s local currency bond yields rose to a one-week high, following U.S. Treasuries, as speculation that the economic outlook for both countries is improving reduced demand from investors seeking a haven.

The yield on Mexico’s peso-denominated debt due in 2022 rose two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 5.16 percent at 4 p.m. in Mexico City, the highest closing level since Jan. 18, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency weakened 0.5 percent to 12.7668 per dollar.

Demand for Mexican bonds is declining along with Treasuries on data pointing to an economic recovery, according to Rafael Camarena, an economist at Grupo Financiero Santander Mexico SAB. The Commerce Department said today that orders for durable goods climbed more than forecast in December in the U.S., the destination for about 80 percent of Mexico’s exports.

“It’s expected that economic activity in the U.S. will continue to go well,” Camarena said by phone from Mexico City. “The perspective is positive.”

The 60-day correlation coefficient between 10-year peso bonds and similar-maturity Treasuries was 0.37 today, up from 0.29 a week ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A reading of 1 would signal the securities moved in lockstep. Yields on 10-year Treasuries, considered among the world’s safest investments, touched 2 percent for the first time since April after U.S. durable-goods orders climbed more than forecast.

Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years rose 4.6 percent in December in the U.S., exceeding the highest forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, after a 0.7 percent gain in November, a Commerce Department report showed today in Washington.

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