Cotlook Ltd. cut its forecast for a global cotton surplus by 2.4 percent as consumption gains in South Asia and Turkey.
In the 12 months that started Aug. 1, supplies will outpace demand by 3.53 million metric tons, Birkenhead, U.K.-based Cotlook, the publisher of a benchmark cotton index, said today in a statement. That compared with a forecast last month of 3.62 million and 5.66 million in the year ended July 31.
The research company boosted its estimate for global consumption by 1.2 percent to 22.5 million tons from last month. Demand in the Indian subcontinent was forecast to climb 1.9 percent to 7.93 million tons.
Last month, Cotlook cut its forecast for the global surplus by 1.8 percent as output dropped in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter. Yesterday, cotton futures in New York reached an eight-month high, partly on speculation that demand will increase in China, the top consumer.
Cotlook increased its projection for global production by 0.7 percent to 26 million tons from a month earlier. Output in China, the biggest grower, was estimated at 7.21 million tons, up 3.9 percent.
Today, cotton for March delivery fell 2.9 percent to settle at 80.52 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.
Cotlook, which has published cotton news for 85 years, issues the Cotlook A Index, which reflects offer prices for cargoes delivered to the Far East.