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U.S. 10-Year TIPS Sale May Yield Negative 0.613%, Survey Shows

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The government’s $15 billion auction of 10-year inflation-indexed notes may draw a yield of negative 0.613 percent, according to the average forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of seven of the Federal Reserve’s 21 primary dealers.

The Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, which mature in January 2023, yielded negative 0.635 percent in trading before the auction. Bids are due by 1 p.m. New York time.

The last offering of 10-year TIPS, a $13 billion sale on Nov. 21, drew a yield of negative 0.72 percent, the sixth consecutive time an auction of the securities yielded less than zero. The record low of negative 0.75 percent was set Sept. 20.

TIPS pay interest at lower rates than nominal Treasuries on a principal amount that’s linked to the Labor Department’s consumer price index.

The November sale’s bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing the amount bid with the amount offered, was 2.52 versus an average of 2.68 for the past 10 sales.

Indirect bidders, a category of investor that includes foreign central banks, bought 48.3 percent of the securities at the November auction, compared with 43.8 percent at the September sale. The average for the past 10 offerings is 42.3 percent.

Direct bidders, non-primary-dealer investors that place their bids directly with the Treasury, bought 10.4 percent of the notes at the last sale, versus 7.7 percent in September and an average of 14.8 percent at the past 10 auctions.

TIPS Returns

U.S. inflation-linked debt maturing in 10 or more years returned 11.8 percent last year, compared with a 7.3 percent gain in the broader TIPS market and a 2.2 percent advance in the overall Treasury market, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes.

This year, longer-term inflation-protected Treasuries have a return of negative 0.81 percent, while all TIPS have lost 0.36 percent. That compares with a negative 0.31 percent for regular U.S. government debt and negative 1.36 percent for securities maturing in 10 years or longer, the indexes show.

The $15 billion sale matches the record high offering for 10-year TIPS set in January and July of 2012.

Primary dealers trade government securities with the central bank and are obligated to participate in Treasury auctions.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at dkruger1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net

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