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Europe Property Companies Seen Gaining in 2013

Publicly traded real estate companies in Europe may have a 10 percent rise in net asset value this year as their yields are at historic highs compared with five- and 10-year corporate bonds and U.K. government debt, Morgan Stanley analysts said.

Real estate equities have for the past 15 years typically risen in value when property yields offer historically wide premiums over corporate bonds and gilts, analysts including Christopher Fremantle wrote in a research note yesterday.

“On the few occasions that the spread has been this wide in the last 15 years, real estate equities have responded positively in absolute share price terms,” the analysts wrote.

Morgan Stanley recommended investing in large diversified U.K. real estate companies such as Land Securities Group Plc and British Land Co. Major U.K. property companies have historically led continental Europe “at inflection points in” NAV growth and on average their debt matures later, the analysts wrote.

“We continue to believe in value stabilization during 2013” and “our confidence in NAV growth for the listed sector is improving,” the analysts wrote.

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