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Rupiah Forwards Weaken on Concern Exports Will Extend Declines

Indonesia’s rupiah forwards dropped after the World Bank cut its global growth forecast, adding to concern the Southeast Asian nation’s exports will extend declines. Government bond yields were at a one-month high.

Global funds pulled 2 trillion rupiah ($205 million) from holdings of local-currency sovereign debt this month, finance ministry data show. The World Bank forecasts the global economy will expand 2.4 percent in 2013, compared with the 3 percent gain it predicted in June. Indonesia’s overseas sales contracted for an eighth month in November, prompting a second straight trade deficit, according to the latest official data.

The rupiah’s one-month non-deliverable forwards declined 0.1 percent to 9,900 per dollar as of 3:02 p.m. in Jakarta, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s 2.1 percent weaker than the spot rate, which fell 0.4 percent to 9,695, prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg show. A daily fixing used to settle non-deliverable forward contracts was set at 9,873 today by the Association of Banks in Singapore.

“The rupiah’s weakening is driven by concern over the trade situation,” said Suriyanto Chang, Jakarta-based head of treasury at PT Bank QNB Kesawan. “Expectations for slower global growth will weaken demand and further worsen exports.”

The currency’s one-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in exchange rates used to price options, was unchanged at 6.75 percent, the highest level since September.

The Finance Ministry raised 9 trillion rupiah at a securities auction yesterday, exceeding its 7 trillion rupiah target, Robert Pakpahan, director general at the debt management office, said yesterday. Investors bid for 2.5 times the amount offered.

The yield on the government’s 5.625 percent notes due May 2023 held at 5.27 percent, the highest level since Dec. 12, according to prices from the Inter Dealer Market Association.

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