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Ringgit Technical Gauge Signals Currency Poised to Reverse Gains

A technical gauge signals a recent rally in Malaysia’s ringgit that drove the currency to a 10-month high may end after the World Bank cut its growth forecast for the global economy. Government bonds advanced.

The 14-day relative strength index was at 31, near the 30 level that suggests the dollar is poised to rebound. The ringgit traded at 3.0143 per dollar as of 4:02 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur, compared with 3.0160 yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It climbed 1.4 percent this month, the second-best performance among Asia’s 11 most-active currencies, and reached 3.0032 yesterday, the strongest level since March 9.

The World Bank lowered its estimate for global gross domestic product to 2.4 percent for 2013, from a June forecast of 3 percent, citing austerity measures, high unemployment and low business confidence in developed nations. The ringgit has appreciated 0.4 percent since official reports last week showed exports and factory output beat economists’ predictions.

“The ringgit has gained quite a bit this year after the better economic data and some selling is to be expected,” said Azmi Shukri Rahman, a foreign-exchange trader in Kuala Lumpur at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. “The World Bank’s report also added some pressure.”

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, held at 5.07 percent.

Industrial output in the Southeast Asian nation rose 7.5 percent in November, the most since May, and more than the 5.9 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Overseas sales increased 3.3 percent, topping the 2.3 percent expected.

The yield on the 3.418 percent sovereign notes maturing in August 2022 fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 3.47 percent, the lowest since Nov. 26, according to prices from Bursa Malaysia.

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