The forint, the world’s second-best performing currency in 2012, will probably gain further this year against the euro as global risk appetite improves, according to Commerzbank AG.
Hungary’s currency appreciated 0.3 percent to 291.02 per euro by 1:09 p.m. in Budapest. The forint may strengthen to 275 per euro by the end of December, said Carolin Hecht, a Frankfurt-based strategist at Commerzbank, the second-most accurate forecaster for Hungary’s currency in the six quarters through December, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA’s CIB Bank Zrt. unit was the most accurate.
The U.S. economy is poised to recover further this year, increasing demand for riskier assets even as the Federal Reserve phases out its so-called quantitative easing measures that stimulated world markets, Hecht said. The global backdrop will outweigh a gloomier prognosis for Hungary’s emergence from recession, she said.
“I think that 2013 will be a moderately good year for the forint,” Hecht wrote in comments sent by e-mail. “In this market environment of low risk aversion, the forint has potential to gain.”
Expectations of further monetary policy easing by Hungary’s central bank are already priced into the forint’s rate, Hecht added.