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Rupiah Drops Most in Seven Months on Concern Inflows Will Slow

Indonesia’s rupiah dropped the most in seven months on concern capital inflows will slow after the Federal Reserve said it may halt its stimulus program, and as the current-account gap worsens amid falling exports.

The Fed will probably end its $85 billion monthly bond purchases sometime this year, according to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Dec. 11-12 meeting released on Jan. 3. Indonesia’s exports contracted for an eighth month in November. Its current-account shortfall was likely 2.5 percent of gross domestic product last year, more than the central bank forecast of 2.4 percent, Barclays Plc economist Prakriti Sofat said last week.

“The rupiah is still on a depreciating trend,” said Raditya Ariwibowo, a Jakarta-based treasury analyst at PT Bank Negara Indonesia. “Inflows will slow after the Fed halts its stimulus, while exports continue falling as long as the global economy remains soft.”

The rupiah fell 1.4 percent to 9,795 per dollar as of 3:27 p.m. in Jakarta, the biggest decline since June 7, prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg show. The currency touched 9,802, the lowest level since Sept. 16, 2009. One-month non-deliverable forwards were little changed at 9,818, trading at a 0.2 percent discount to the spot rate, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Non-deliverable forwards are settled in dollars.

The currency’s one-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in exchange rates used to price options, was steady at 5.7 percent today.

The yield on the government’s 5.625 percent notes due in May 2023 dropped one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 5.11 percent, according to prices from the Inter Dealer Market Association. That’s the lowest level since Feb. 9 when it reached a record low of 5.05 percent for benchmark 10-year bonds.

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