Tin may rally about 12 percent this quarter to $27,300 a metric ton, the highest price since August 2011, according to technical analysis from Trading Central SA.
The target represents on Fibonacci charts the 61.8 percent retracement of the decline from the April 2011 high to the July 2012 low, said Jeffrey Zhang, Hong Kong-based head of Asian research. In the short term, tin will probably advance to between $24,930 and $26,000 in one or two weeks, Zhang said.
“The price has already broken above a long-term declining trend line in place since April 2011 and currently remains on the upside within its bullish channel,” Zhang wrote in an e-mail. “The 20-day moving average plays well as a support role, and should continue to push the price higher.”
Tin for delivery in three months jumped as much as 4.7 percent to $24,510 a ton on the London Metal Exchange yesterday, the highest level since February. It gained 22 percent last year, the best performing main industrial metal on the LME. The price fell 0.2 percent to $24,400 by 3:07 p.m. Singapore time today, with the 20-day moving average at $23,086.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low.