Palm oil will probably plunge 16 percent in the next three months to test 1,950 ringgit ($638) a metric ton, the cheapest price in more than three years, according to technical analysis by Trading Central SA.
The contract for March delivery “is still in a bearish trend as it remains under pressure below both the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages,” said Jeffrey Zhang, Hong Kong-based head of Asia research. The averages “are heading downwards and should continue to push the price lower,” he said in an e-mail today.
Palm tumbled 27 percent this year as output in Indonesia and Malaysia, the biggest producers, outpaced demand from China and India. The most-active contract on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slumped to 2,217 ringgit on Dec. 13, the lowest level since November 2009, and was at 2,314 by 3:32 p.m. Kuala Lumpur time. Futures last traded below 1,950 ringgit in March 2009.
The 20-day moving average was about 2,375.60 ringgit and the 50-day average about 2,473.76 today. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.