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Indonesian Five-Year Bonds Gain for Eighth Week; Rupiah Weakens

Indonesia’s five-year bonds gained for an eighth week, the longest winning streak since April 2010, as the second-highest yields in Asia attracted funds from abroad. The rupiah weakened.

Global funds added 2.23 trillion rupiah ($232 million) to their holdings of local-currency sovereign debt in the first two trading days of this month, following a record 19.5 trillion rupiah increase in November, official data show. Bank Indonesia will maintain its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 5.75 percent for a 10th month when it meets on Dec. 11, according to all 18 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

The yield on the government’s 10 percent bonds maturing in July 2017 fell six basis points this week, or 0.06 percentage point, to 4.92 percent as of 3:46 p.m. in Jakarta, prices from the Inter Dealer Market Association show. Among 13 Asia-Pacific debt markets tracked by Bloomberg, only India’s five-year yield of 8.11 percent is higher. Similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries yield 0.60 percent.

“Capital inflows can continue as investors seek yield and rates are likely to remain stable until the end of the year,” said Billie Fuliangsahar, the Jakarta-based head of treasury at PT Bank Rabobank International Indonesia. “The tendency for the rupiah to decline is still strong due to demand for dollars and the weak trade position.”

Trade Balance

Indonesia’s trade balance swung to a record deficit of $1.5 billion in October, from a revised surplus of $549.5 million the previous month, official data show. This year’s current-account deficit may be equivalent to 2.2 percent of gross domestic product, the highest proportion since at least 1997, Bank Indonesia Governor Darmin Nasution said yesterday.

The rupiah fell 0.3 percent this week to 9,620 per dollar, after earlier reaching 9,675, the lowest level since October 2009, prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg show. The currency weakened 0.1 percent today.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in exchange rates used to price options, climbed five basis points this week to 4.65 percent.

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