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Thailand’s Four-Year Government Bonds Fall on Recovery Optimism

Thailand’s four-year bonds fell for a fifth day as data signaled China’s recovery is gathering pace, brightening the Southeast Asian nation’s export outlook and reducing the likelihood of any cut in local interest rates.

A manufacturing index in China, Thailand’s biggest overseas market, rose to a seven-month high in November, official figures showed on Dec. 1. Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said on Nov. 28 that current economic data don’t warrant a further reduction in borrowing costs. The central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.75 percent that day, after lowering it by a quarter of a percentage point in October.

“The economy and bond yields seem to be bottoming out,” said Koji Fukaya, president of currency research and consulting company Office Fukaya in Tokyo and a former chief foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG. “The Chinese economy is probably beginning to stabilize and that will gradually support Asia’s recovery.”

The yield on the 3.25 percent securities due June 2017 rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 3.13 percent as of 3:05 p.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Thailand’s exports climbed 14 percent in October after falling 0.1 percent the previous month, while imports surged 21 percent, central bank data showed on Nov. 30. Inflation slowed to 2.74 percent last month from 3.32 percent the previous month, official data showed today.

The baht rose 0.1 percent to 30.66 per dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in exchange rates used to price options, dropped eight basis points to 4 percent.

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