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Indonesia’s 10-Year Government Bond Yield Drops to 9-Month Low

Indonesia’s bonds rallied, pushing the yield on 10-year notes to a nine-month low, after inflation in November slowed more than forecast. The rupiah was steady.

Consumer prices rose 4.32 percent from a year earlier, official data showed today, less than the 4.57 percent gain predicted by economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Inflation was 4.61 percent in October. Bank Indonesia will review its benchmark interest rate on Dec. 11, after it held borrowing costs at a historic-low 5.75 percent for a ninth month in November. The trade balance swung to a record deficit of $1.5 billion in October, compared with a $466 million surplus forecast by analysts.

“The gains in bonds will continue as stable inflation will see the central bank holding its reference rate steady,” said Rully Nova, a currency analyst at PT Bank Himpunan Saudara 1906 in Jakarta. “The rupiah will be under pressure due to the trade deficit.”

The yield on the government’s 7 percent notes due in May 2022 dropped four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 5.34 percent as of 3:45 p.m. in Jakarta, the lowest level since Feb. 22, prices from the Inter Dealer Market Association show.

Foreign funds added 18.1 trillion rupiah ($1.9 billion) to their local-currency government bond holdings last month through Nov. 29, the biggest monthly inflow since data going back to January 2003, according to the finance ministry.

The rupiah closed at 9,598 per dollar compared with 9,594 on Nov. 30, prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg show. One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in exchange rates used to price options, climbed five basis points to 4.65 percent.

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