The global coking-coal benchmark may fall 5.9 percent in the first quarter on lackluster demand in Europe for the steelmaking component.
Metallurgical coal may drop to $160 a metric ton from $170, Steve Doyle, founder of Doyle Trading Consultants LLC, said today at a conference put on by his company in New York.
For the fourth quarter of this year, the BHP/Mitsubishi Alliance, or BMA, agreed to the lowest benchmark price since contracts shifted to quarterly settlements from annual pacts in the first quarter of 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Prices may rebound to $180 by the fourth quarter of 2013 as 30 million metric tons of production cuts from Appalachia to Australia take effect, Doyle said.
New supply from mines in Mozambique and Mongolia has been slow to reach the global market and the quality of the coal isn’t as favorable as that found in other regions, he said.