Australian carbon permits are forecast to trade at an average price of A$16 ($16.74) a metric ton in the second half of this decade, according to research company RepuTex.
A lower carbon price than Australia’s government predicted may result in a rise in higher costs for the certificates created under its plan to get 20 percent of the nation’s power from renewable energy by 2020, RepuTex said today in an e-mailed statement.
Australia’s Climate Change Authority assumes that the carbon price will trade at A$29 a ton when the nation moves to from a fixed price to a floating price in 2015 and then rise 5 percent a year, according to RepuTex. The cost of Large-scale Generation Credits may increase to as much as A$65 in 2020 in the wake of lower carbon prices, the researcher said.
Australia, seeking to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, requires electricity retailers to purchase renewable energy certificates from low-carbon generators, providing an incentive to wind and solar developers. An oversupply of the certificates reduced spot prices to about A$35 this year.
Australia started charging about 300 of its largest polluters a fixed carbon price of A$23 a ton in July and plans to move to a market-based, emissions trading system in 2015. The country abandoned an attempt to set a minimum price for carbon permits and announced in August it was linking to the European Union market, preparing for global emissions trading.