Ian Shepherdson, former chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics Ltd., founded his own economic research firm, Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors Inc., which will focus on the U.S.
Shepherdson forecasts in the firm’s first report to clients today that the U.S. economy will expand by about 2 percent next year, while the unemployment rate will decline to 7.6 percent by June 2013. The Dow Jones Industrial Average will rally 12 percent to 14,000 at the end of next year.
“The U.S. economy is still fundamentally very strong,” Shepherdson said in an interview, citing rebounds in the auto industry, energy production and housing. “I’m pretty bullish on housing, and there’s a lot more to come. When home sales pick up in a meaningful way, you get a lot more knock-on spending and other activity.”
Shepherdson spent almost 14 years at Valhalla, New York-based High Frequency, which he joined after two years as an economist at HSBC Securities Inc. in New York. He said he left High Frequency because he wanted to start his own firm. He plans to split his time between the firm’s two offices in White Plains, New York, and his native Newcastle, England, where he’s lived for the past decade.
Shepherdson’s forecast for GDP growth in 2013 matches the median in a Bloomberg News survey of 74 economists conducted from Nov. 9 to Nov. 14. The unemployment rate will decline to 7.8 percent in the second quarter, according to the Bloomberg survey median.