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Nordic Next-Quarter Power Rises to 2-Week High as Carbon Gains

Nordic power for the next quarter rose to the highest in more than two weeks as prices for carbon emission allowances advanced and drier weather was forecast for the hydropower-dependent region.

“Carbon dioxide emissions are quite firm and have broken resistance levels,” Toni Juvonen, portfolio manager at Savon Voima Salkunhallinta Oy, said today by phone from Toivola, Finland. “The latest 15-day ensemble weather forecast for the Nordic region was clearly drier than the one from last week.”

Electricity for delivery from January through March rose 1.9 percent to 41.05 euros ($52.22) a megawatt-hour on Nasdaq OMX Group Inc.’s energy exchange in Oslo, the highest closing price since Oct. 26. EU emissions allowances for December rose as much as 4.9 percent to 8.74 euros, the most since March 8, and traded at 8.70 euros at 3:50 p.m. Oslo time.

Weather forecasts point to a reduced glut of water supplies. The surplus compared with the seasonal average may fall by 35 percent to 5.6 terawatt-hours in the next two weeks, Markedskraft AS data on Bloomberg show. The area meets more than half its power needs by running water through turbines.

Following a rainy summer and autumn, the market has factored in wet weather, which is why a shift to cold and dry weather may trigger a swift price rise, SEB AB, Sweden’s third-largest bank, said today in an e-mailed research note. The first-quarter contract is unlikely to rise above its August peak of 44 euros, SEB said.

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