Soybean output in Brazil, set to surpass the U.S. as the largest grower, will rise more than previously expected as rain in the next three months will benefit planting and development, the government said.
Growers will harvest as much as 83 million metric tons in the year that started Sept. 1, more than the 82.8 million tons estimated last month, the Agriculture Ministry’s crop-forecasting agency, known as Conab, said in its second report for this season. Production will rise from 66.4 million tons collected in the past season.
“We received reports that the weather should be more normal for the next three months,” said Silvio Porto, director of information and agriculture policy for Conab to reporters in Brasilia.
Conab’s forecast compares with 79.1 million tons estimated by researchers Celeres in a Nov. 5 report.
Dry weather in pasts months in the western state of Mato Grosso, the biggest grower of the oilseed in the country, could harm crops if it lasts for a longer period, Mauro Osaki, an analyst at researcher Cepea, said.
“If there isn’t sufficient rain for the next couple of weeks, soybean planting would be postponed until after Nov. 20 and this would mean losing the optimal planting window,” Osaki said in a phone interview from Piracicaba, Sao Paulo.
While delays in planting may pare output, a bigger volume of rain in coming months could offset the tardy sowing, Porto said.
Conab cut its corn forecast to as much as 72.9 million tons from 73.2 million tons estimated in October. Production will drop from 73 million tons in the previous season, Conab said.