China’s economy will probably rebound in the fourth quarter, Jia Kang, a Ministry of Finance researcher, said at a conference reviewing China’s economic performance in Beijing today.
China will achieve its full-year growth target of 7.5 percent and “the rebound in the fourth quarter is likely to extend into next year,” Jia said at the quarterly conference at the China Center for Economic Research, Peking University.
The median forecast in a Bloomberg news survey of 30 economists, which was published on Oct. 24, is for China’s economy to expand 7.7 in the October-December period. Third-quarter growth eased to 7.4 percent from a year earlier, the seventh straight deceleration.
At the same time, some monthly data showed signs of a pickup. Industrial production in September rose a more-than-estimated 9.2 percent from a year earlier, retail sales climbed 14.2 percent, the most since March, and fixed-asset investment excluding rural households for the first nine months of the year increased 20.5 percent.
“For short-term growth prospects, there will be no big problem,” Jia said. “China’s pro-growth policies will continue to have effect.”
China’s budget deficit may also increase a little next year, “but there will be no significant increase,” Jia said. While China may also issue more local government bonds in 2013, “overall local government debt risks are under control,” he said.