Private investments in emerging markets will fall less than forecast this year helped by easing measures taken by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, according to the Institute of International Finance.
Flows to emerging markets will decline “modestly” to about $1.03 trillion, an upward revision of $114 billion from the IIF’s forecast in June, it said in a statement today as part of its annual meeting in Tokyo. Its forecast for next year was boosted by $106 billion to $1.1 trillion, projecting the first increase since 2010.
The international bank lobbying group cited the Fed’s plan to purchase $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities a month aimed at boosting jobs and the ECB’s so-called Outright Monetary Transactions bond-purchasing program. Deleveraging by banks, specifically lenders coping with the region’s debt crisis, is still weighing on investment, it said.
“The 2013 forecasts reflect a balance of two opposing factors -- a weaker global growth environment, countered by more monetary stimulus,” Philip Suttle, IIF deputy managing director and chief economist, said in the statement.
Total private flows in 2007 reached a high of $1.24 trillion, according to the IIF. The lobby group revised the forecast on June 7, saying ECB funding reduced pressure on banks to scale back business.