U.S. soybean production is estimated to fall to 75 million metric tons this year from 84.2 million tons in 2011, better than expected by the government, industry researcher Oil World said.
The outlook for U.S. soybeans has improved, and there’s “general consensus” that the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast of 71.7 million tons is “significantly too low,” the Hamburg-based researcher wrote in an e-mailed report today.
Soybean futures traded in Chicago declined 8.9 percent in September after climbing 7 percent in July, on speculation damage caused by the worst U.S. drought in more than 50 years was less severe than suggested by USDA estimates.
“There are still many reports of surprisingly high yields despite this summer’s historic drought,” Oil World said. “With larger carry-in stocks and a higher than expected crop, U.S. soybean supplies in 2012-13 will be less tight than expected.”
U.S. soybean yields are estimated to drop to 2.48 tons per hectare, or 37 bushels per acre, according to Oil World. That compares with 2.82 tons per hectare in 2011, it wrote.