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Treasury Rate May Decline to Record: Technical Analysis

Treasury 10-year yields may decline to a record low of 1.1 percent after having formed a so-called double-top reversal, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. said, citing trading patterns.

The benchmark rate peaked at 1.86 percent on Aug. 21 and 1.89 percent on Sept. 14, levels unseen since May, climbing from the all-time low of 1.38 percent set on July 25. Between the two highs, the yield bottomed out at 1.54 percent. The rate may fall toward 1.1 percent by year-end, said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist in Tokyo at a unit of Sumitomo Mitsui, Japan’s second-largest bank by market value.

“The next target will be around 1.1 percent, assuming that yields drop about 0.4 percentage point, the difference between the peak at 1.89 percent and trough at 1.54 percent,” Uno said.

Ten-year yields were little changed yesterday at 1.62 percent, based on Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 1.625 percent security due August 2022 was 100 1/32.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

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