Canada, the world’s largest grower of rapeseed and canola, may harvest a record crop this year while world demand for the oilseed climbs, Oil World said.
Canada may harvest 16.2 million metric tons of canola, a low-acid variety of rapeseed, in the 2012-13 season that began Aug. 1, the Hamburg-based researcher said today in a report. The country’s exports may climb to 8.8 million tons, more than the 8.65 million shipped a year earlier. Shipments to China, the largest importer of Canadian canola, may rise to 3 million tons this year, up from 2.53 million a year earlier.
“For 2012-13 we expect usage of Canadian canola to remain unusually high,” Oil World said. “The global tightness in soybeans and sunflower seed, and the resulting lower production and export supplies of the respective oils and meals, will raise world demand for rapeseed and canola.”
Most of the increase in Canadian shipments to China probably will occur in the first six to eight months of the season while soybean supplies remain tight before the South American harvest, Oil World said.
World production of sunflower seed may drop to 37.32 million tons in the 2012-13 season, down 5.3 percent from a year earlier, as output shrinks in Europe and the former Soviet Union, Oil World said.
The sunflower-seed harvest in Ukraine, the world’s biggest producer, is progressing one to two weeks ahead of normal because of drought, Oil World said. About 25.3 million tons of all the country’s grains had been collected as of Aug. 14, with yields averaging about 2.6 tons per hectare (2.47 acres), below last year’s 3 tons per hectare and “steeply down” from normal, according to the report.
While recent rains may have eased some stress on Ukraine’s sunflower seed and later-maturing corn crops, “it remains questionable to what extent these rains could reverse effects of dryness,” Oil World said. Farmers in the country are beginning to plant winter rapeseed crops, according to the report.