Palm oil may decline as much as 14 percent to the lowest level in two years by end-September or early October as global economic concerns reduce demand, said Hyderabad, India-based TransGraph Consulting Pvt.
Prices will drop towards 2,750 ringgit a metric ton and may extend the slide to 2,500 ringgit ($807) as inventories build in Malaysia and the export tax falls on crude palm oil from Indonesia, the biggest producer, Chairman Nagaraj Meda said in an interview. The duty declines in stages and is zero below $750. Prices last traded below 2,500 ringgit in 2010.
Futures fell for the third straight month in July on expectations that lower shipments from Malaysia, the largest producer after Indonesia, may boost inventories.
Meda, who’s predicted prices for over a decade, forecast in March that palm oil would climb to 3,500 ringgit by mid-April, before falling to 2,800 ringgit. The price closed at 3,613 ringgit on April 10, then fell to 2,846 ringgit in June.
The October-delivery contract fell 0.4 percent to close at 2,907 ringgit on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange today. Futures have slumped 20 percent since reaching a 13-month high of 3,628 ringgit in April.