Oil rose from near its lowest closing level in two weeks in New York before the end of a Federal Reserve policy meeting and after a decline in crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s largest consumer of the commodity.
U.S. crude inventories dropped by 11.6 million barrels last week, the most since September 2008, the American Petroleum Institute said yesterday. The Energy Department may say today that supplies fell 1 million barrels to 379.1 million, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will probably forgo announcing a third round of large-scale asset purchases this week and is more likely to wait until September to unveil plans to buy debt, economists said before today’s policy statement.
“The U.S. government will do everything they can to keep the ball rolling, so I think we’ll see more and more stimulus come into the market,” said Gerrit Zambo, an oil trader at Bayerische Landesbank in Munich. “I don’t see much upside for oil from a fundamental point of view, but if equity markets go up due to more stimulus, oil will follow.”
Crude for September delivery was at $88.36 a barrel, up 30 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:27 p.m. London time. The contract yesterday decreased $1.72 to $88.06, the lowest close since July 13. Prices gained 3.7 percent last month and are 11 percent lower this year.
Brent oil for September settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange was at $105.57 a barrel, up 65 cents. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $17.25 to New York-traded West Texas Intermediate grade.
Oil’s decline may accelerate in New York as an indicator known as the moving average convergence-divergence falls below its signal line for the first time in seven weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Investors tend to sell contracts on a so-called bearish MACD crossover. Futures have technical support around $85.85 a barrel, where the 50-day moving average coincides with the middle Bollinger Band.
A purchasing managers’ index in China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, fell to 50.1 in July, the lowest reading in eight months, data from the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed today. That’s below a median estimate of 50.5 in a Bloomberg News survey of 24 economists. A reading above 50 signals an expansion and below 50 a contraction.
“The PMI is below market expectations,” said Selena Ling, head of treasury research and strategy at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. “This suggests the Chinese growth slowdown will extend. This, coupled with the other dovish global economic signals, could keep oil prices somewhat subdued.”
A separate purchasing managers’ index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics indicated that China’s manufacturing contracted at a slower pace in July. The gauge, which covers more than 420 companies and is weighted toward smaller businesses, rose to 49.3 from 48.2 in June, after a preliminary reading of 49.5 released last week.
Oil output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fell a second month in July as Iranian production shrank to a 22-year low, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Output dropped 393,000 barrels, or 1.2 percent, to an average of 31.165 million barrels a day from 31.558 million in June, the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts showed. It was the second monthly decline after daily production reached 31.62 million barrels in May, the highest since October 2008.
Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the largest oil consumer, slid to 369.7 million barrels last week, the industry-funded API said yesterday.. Gasoline inventories decreased 1.3 million barrels, according to the API. The government report may show supplies rose 800,000 barrels.
“I would have anticipated the API data to be supportive but let’s see what the Energy Department report shows,” said Jonathan Barratt, the chief executive officer of Barratt’s Bulletin, a commodity-markets newsletter in Sydney. “The focus still remains on what the Fed and ECB will do.”
The API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the Energy Department for its weekly survey.