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JGB Futures Seen at 4-Week Low on Fibonacci: Technical Analysis

Japan’s 10-year government bond futures may fall toward their lowest level in almost four weeks, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., citing trading patterns.

The contract is likely to decline to 143.78 yen, the 23.6 percent retracement from its March 16 low of 140.99 to the July 23 high of 144.64 on the Fibonacci chart, said Naomi Muguruma, a senior fixed-income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley. That would be the lowest since July 5, according to Bloomberg data.

“Bond futures opened this week at 144.18 yen, lower than last week’s low of 144.30 and below the mid-point of the high and low during the five days ended July 27,” Muguruma said in an interview yesterday. That’s a “bearish signal.”

The daily candle chart for the futures shows a price gap, an area where no trades occurred, between 144.22 and 144.30 on July 30, another sign the contract may be poised for “downward correction,” Muguruma said.

Ten-year JGB futures fell 0.06 to 144.01 yesterday at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, declining for a fourth day.

Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages from previous highs or lows. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

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