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Turkish Bond Yields Advance for a Second Day on Technicals

Turkish debt yields advanced for a second day, rebounding from the lowest in 10 months and pushing bonds toward an exit from overbought territory.

Yields on two-year benchmark debt rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 7.95 percent, paring this month’s fall to 52 basis points. The Relative Strength Index for benchmark bonds advanced to 15.6, remaining in an overbought territory for a 14th day. An RSI reading above 70 indicates a security may be poised to fall and below 30 it may be set for a rise.

Yields sank 88 basis points between June 26 and July 11 to the lowest level since September on speculation of interest rate cuts after Governor Erdem Basci said he may trim the inflation estimate toward 5 percent from 6.5 percent. The monetary policy committee will convene July 19. Yields have dropped 306 basis points this year, the biggest slide among 17 emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg.

“We are seeing that 7.85 percent level is resistance level for benchmark bonds and it will not be easy to break this resistance before the monetary policy is clarified in the committee meeting,” Bora Tamer Yilmaz, a vice president at Istanbul-based Halk Securities, said in e-mailed comments.

The central bank today lent 4 billion liras ($2.2 billion) at the lowest 5.75 percent funding rate in its daily repurchase agreements auction. The liquidity provided equals the amount lenders have to repay from last week’s auctions. The money loaned today in one-month repo auction was cut to 2 billion liras from 4 billion liras last week.

The average cost of borrowing in Turkey increased to 8.3 percent yesterday, up for a second day, reflecting Basci’s tightening stance. The lira gained 0.3 percent to 1.8160 per dollar, extending its appreciation this week to 0.3 percent.

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