July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Global wheat production in the year that started June 1 will be lower than forecast last month as dry weather threatens crops in Russia and Ukraine, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
World output will total 665.33 million metric tons, down 1 percent from 672.1 million forecast in June, the USDA today in a monthly report. Stockpiles at the end of the marketing year, on May 31, will be 182.44 million tons, lower than last month’s forecast of 185.76 million, the department said. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting an estimate of 182.6 million.
“Those numbers are going to continue to come down” because of dry weather in the Black Sea region, Louise Gartner, the owner of Spectrum Commodities in Beavercreek, Ohio, said by telephone. “Continued drought in southern Russia has since expanded into western Ukraine and southeastern Europe. The drought is expanding toward the west.”
Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have surged 28 percent since the end of May as dry weather threatens crops. The September contract closed yesterday at $8.2125 a bushel, down 0.8 percent. Milling wheat on NYSE Liffe in Paris is up 17 since May 31.
Russian wheat production will total 49 million tons, down from 53 million tons estimated in June, the USDA said. The country’s stockpiles are expected to total 9.57 million tons, down from 9.97 million tons.
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