Credit Suisse Group AG cut its price forecast for thermal coal at Australia’s Newcastle port as it expects prices to remain under pressure before output cuts can balance oversupply.
Prices for delivery this year will average $98 a metric ton, the bank said today in a report. That’s 13 percent less than its forecast in April.
“Tentative signs of supply discipline have begun to emerge but more significant cutbacks and project deferrals will need to emerge,” analysts including Andrew Shaw, head of base-metals and bulk-commodities research at Credit Suisse in Singapore, said in the report.
The scale of demand from Asian buyers will help balance the market, supporting Credit Suisse’s long-term forecast of $120 a ton, the bank said.
“Though the market is currently oversupplied, demand growth in the coming years will still require significant supply side additions and, at current prices, miners do not face sufficient incentives to invest in these requisite projects,” it said.