Peru, Turkey to Spur U.S. Export Growth by 2016, HSBC Predicts

Peru, Turkey and Brazil will be the fastest-growing markets for U.S. exports in the next five years, as emerging-market nations consume more goods, according to an HSBC Holdings Plc report on international trade.

U.S. exports to Peru, estimated at $8.3 billion in 2011, are predicted to expand 8.7 percent a year, according to a forecast released today by the commercial banking unit of London-based HSBC. Exports will increase 8.3 percent to Turkey and 8.3 percent to Brazil.

“Traditional export-driven economies in ‘emerging’ markets are becoming more consumer-driven and importing more from high-end developed-nation producers, like the United States, to fulfill demand,” Steve Bottomley, head of commercial banking for HSBC North America, said in a statement.

President Barack Obama wants to double U.S. exports from 2009 through the end of 2014, and the administration has focused on improving trade with Latin America, Turkey and the Pacific region. U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk and Acting Commerce Secretary Rebecca Blank are in Turkey this week to discuss economic issues with local business leaders.

“We should now be looking at ways to strengthen our partnership beyond just trade,” Blank said in prepared remarks during a lunch in Istanbul yesterday. “We should foster stronger and more balanced bilateral investment.”

Compound Growth

U.S. companies can expect trade to increase 4.7 percent annually over the next 10 years, according to the forecast produced for HSBC by Delta Economics, a London-based research company. The forecast shows compound annual growth rate for U.S. exports from this year through 2016.

Biopharmaceuticals will lead U.S. growth in non-commodity exports, increasing 8.6 percent each year, it said. Latin American imports of the products will increase by more than 11 percent annually.

Peru and the U.S. are in discussions with seven other nations to create the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a regional group working on issues including agriculture, investment and intellectual-property protections. Other nations are Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore and Vietnam.

The group last week invited Canada and Mexico to join, which would create the largest U.S. export market, according to the U.S. Trade Representative’s office.

The U.S. Export-Import Bank lists Turkey and Brazil as two of 10 “key markets” where U.S. exporters have significant opportunity for growth. The bank since November has supported about $279.5 million in financing to help Turkish buyers of aircraft and components from Boeing Co. and General Electric Co., according to the lender’s website.

U.S. exporters sent about $42.9 billion in goods to Brazil last year, a 21 percent increase from 2010, according to the Census Bureau. The country was the eighth-largest U.S. trading partner in 2011, behind South Korea and ahead of France.

Brazil will have the fastest global growth for imports, 7.7 percent annually in the five years, the HSBC forecast said.

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