Bloomberg Anywhere Remote Login Bloomberg Terminal Demo Request


Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world.


Financial Products

Enterprise Products


Customer Support

  • Americas

    +1 212 318 2000

  • Europe, Middle East, & Africa

    +44 20 7330 7500

  • Asia Pacific

    +65 6212 1000


Industry Products

Media Services

Follow Us

Stock-Surge Signal for U.S. Has Yet to Arrive

Any multiyear rally in U.S. stocks may depend on a signal that the bond market has yet to send, according to Michael Hartnett, Bank of America Corp.’s chief global equity strategist.

Bond yields have to reach “an inflection point” before shares can move into what’s known as a secular bull market if history is any guide, Hartnett wrote in a June 12 report.

The CHART OF THE DAY compares the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the yield on 10-year Treasury notes since 1900, as Hartnett did in his report. The yield figures were compiled by Yale University Professor Robert J. Shiller and obtained from his website.

Hartnett highlighted three inflection points in the past century, as shown in the chart. They foreshadowed stock-market booms during the 1920s, after World War II, and throughout most of the 1980s and 1990s.

A comparable surge in share prices is unlikely, he wrote, “until Treasury yields rise in response to stronger growth and a healthier global economy.” The 10-year yield fell to a record

1.4387 percent this month.

Even so, lower yields are giving investors more incentive to shift into stocks from bonds, the New York-based strategist wrote. He estimated that it will take a 0.6 percent yield for the 10-year’s return in the next 12 months to match stocks’ 20th-century average of 10.5 percent a year.

Please upgrade your Browser

Your browser is out-of-date. Please download one of these excellent browsers:

Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Opera or Internet Explorer.