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IIF Sees Emerging Market Flows Falling Less on ECB Intervention

Private investments in emerging markets will probably fall about 11 percent this year, contracting less than forecast after European Central Bank funding reduced pressure on banks to scale back business, according to the Institute of International Finance Inc.

Flows to emerging markets will fall to about $912 billion this year from $1.03 trillion last year, the IIF said today. The institute in January said flows would contract to as little as $746 billion this year.

ECB three-year loans of more than 1 trillion euros ($1.26 trillion) helped increase flows to emerging markets and moderated the pace of bank deleveraging, the IIF said in a report presented in Copenhagen today. Capital flows should rise to about $994 billion in 2013 while risks remain, it said.

“We anticipate that economic and financial tensions in the euro area will persist for some time and subside only very gradually in 2013,” said IIF deputy managing director and chief economist Philip Suttle. “Despite the large upward revision, capital flows this year are still projected to decline in Asia, by around 15 percent, in particular China,” he said.

Emerging markets in Asia will account for about 44 percent of flows in 2013 from 52 percent in 2011, according to the IIF.

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